(KMAland) -- Football Friday Football picks is back with a showdown between KMA Sports' three venerable broadcasters. It's week four!
Last week, the title went to Ryan Matheny, who finished with an 11-4 record. Trevor added a 10-4 mark, and Derek finished up 10-5 in dead last. Check out the latest standings through three weeks of picks:
As always, the series history notes are courtesy of BCMoore’s Iowa Scores Project. Check him out at bcmoorerankings.com.
Red Oak (1-2, 0-0) at Shenandoah (1-2, 0-0)
I don’t know that this has the full history, but in the BCMoore Iowa Scores Project it’s a 39-19-6 record in favor of Shenandoah. The project has scores dating back to 1905, and it has every score from 1990 on. There’s a chance they didn’t play in 1989 or 1980 and much of 1970, but if they did the score is not there. Shenandoah has won the last two and four of the last six, although it’s 6-5 in favor of the Mustangs since 2010.
Derek’s Pick: Shenandoah. Nodaway Valley beat Red Oak, and Shenandoah beat Nodaway Valley so that means Shenandoah has to win this game, right? Right? It doesn’t always work that way, but I do think the Mustangs should have the offensive advantage here. Let’s call it a 20-14 score.
Trev’s Pick: Red Oak. I've yet to pick a Shenandoah game right, so you're welcome, Mustangs. All joking aside, Red Oak's defense held a Nodaway Valley offense that posted 26 points against Shen to only six. I know every game is different, but I've been impressed with the Tigers to this point. I think they get to 2-2.
Ryan’s Pick: Shenandoah. It sounds like Shenandoah will be a little healthier this week and have a few more options available on offense. The difference for me in this one is the Mustangs' offense. I think they have enough to outscore the Tigers.
BCMoore Projection: Red Oak by 5.78.
Bedford (2-1, 1-1) at Fremont-Mills (1-2, 1-0)
Bedford won the first six meetings between the two teams, but Fremont-Mills has won the last three. Those last three were the 8-player games. The previous six were all 11-player.
Trev’s Pick: Fremont-Mills. This might be the best 1-2 8--player team in the state. This is also a good measuring stick for Bedford and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong on this pick, but I'll take the known commodity.
Ryan’s Pick: Fremont-Mills. There should be some good pad-popping in this one. These are two programs that pride themselves on their physicality. The Bulldogs are coming off another physical battle with Lenox, so how do they respond in this one? I like F-M's skill guys to be the difference.
Derek’s Pick: Fremont-Mills. There are many rules in KMAland high school football, and one of them is that Fremont-Mills does not lose district games very often. So, I’m not going to be the one to pick against them.
BCMoore Projection: Fremont-Mills by 39.41.
West Harrison (1-2, 0-2) at Boyer Valley (2-1, 1-1)
Boyer Valley has won 14 of the 20 meetings between the two clubs, dating back to 1998. They have played 10 times in the last nine seasons with Boyer Valley winning seven of those. The Hawkeyes, though, won both matchups last year.
Ryan’s Pick: Boyer Valley. Boyer Valley has been a pleasant surprise this year and really impressed me with their win over CR-B last week. Trevor Malone has been electric, playing TE early on and then exploding as the RB last week. I look for the Bulldogs to move him around the field and take advantage of some matchups to get a win.
Derek’s Pick: Boyer Valley. I was this close to picking a pretty major (BCMoore) upset. I think it’s a little difficult to tell a whole lot about both of these teams at this point, but the safe pick is to go with the home team coming off a 60-40 win over Coon Rapids-Bayard, I suppose. I’m trying to stay close here so I can run away with the title in the end, after all.
Trev’s Pick: Boyer Valley. The Bulldogs turned heads last week. This week's win won't be a surprise.
BCMoore Projection: Boyer Valley by 27.50.
Woodbine (1-2, 1-1) at Coon Rapids-Bayard (2-1, 0-1)
Coon Rapids-Bayard has the edge in this series, 6-3. They’ve played seven times since 2010, and the Crusaders won all of them except for the 2018 meeting.
Derek’s Pick: Woodbine. I’m a little worried about this pick given the fact that CRB struggled against the run last year, and their strength is conceivably in covering athletes on a pass. And the Tigers pass much more than they run. We’ll see what’s what soon enough.
Trev’s Pick: Coon Rapids-Bayard. This team is probably angry. I smell a bounce back from Chris Mohr's team.
Ryan’s Pick: Coon Rapids-Bayard. This is a tricky bounceback game for CR-B. I think the Crusaders want to play lower-scoring affairs and last week may have gotten away from them. If they can dictate the tempo in this one, I like their chances.
BCMoore Projection: Coon Rapids-Bayard by 3.72.
Martensdale-St. Marys (2-1, 2-0) at Lamoni (1-2, 0-1)
These two teams played for the first time in 13 years last season with Martensdale-St. Marys winning a high-scoring battle. The Demons won the 2007 game, but MSTM won in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2006. So, the Blue Devils hold the edge in this series.
Trev’s Pick: Martensdale-St. Marys. Maybe we were wrong about this team (maybe). But, we are human. The Blue Devils control their own destiny in 8-Player District 8 and they are only going to get better.
Ryan’s Pick: Martensdale-St. Marys. MSM has grown quite a bit since their week one loss to Stanton-Essex. The Blue Devils are still getting better and will need a big performance from the William Amfahr/Hogan Franey connection.
Lamoni Martensdale-St. Marys. Thought I would scare the MSTM folks with that one. I don’t need to make any more “bad takes” this week. Let’s roll with the Blue Devils, which seem to have found something after the week one wake-up call (I should note that turned out not to be a bad take from me).
BCMoore Projection: Martensdale-St. Marys by 22.28.
Twin Cedars (0-3, 0-2) at Moravia (0-3, 0-2)
This marks the 18th matchup between the two programs since 2003, but it’s the first 2019. No game last year is what I’m saying. Twin Cedars has the 10-7 edge in this series, but Moravia has won the last three and four of the last five.
Ryan’s Pick: Moravia. Moravia was very impressive in a close loss to Mormon Trail, meanwhile Twin Cedars has yet to score a point this season. I'll take the Mohawks to get on one in the win column this week.
Derek’s Pick: Moravia. The Mohawks have been handling things in this series of late, and I’ll go with them to pick up their first win, given they have been a bit more impressive in the early season.
Trev’s Pick: Moravia. Somebody is getting in the win column. I think it's the home team, who happens to be a 31-point favorite, according to BCMoore.
BCMoore Projection: Moravia by 31.15.
AHSTW (1-2, 0-2) at Mount Ayr (1-2, 0-1)
This is the first ever meeting between AHSTW and Mount Ayr! Love to see it.
Derek’s Pick: Mount Ayr. If there’s any prediction to make it’s that this is going to be a close game. Mount Ayr is a minus-4 in overall score in three games while AHSTW has had two of their three games decided by four points or less. I’ll take the home team.
Trev’s Pick: Mount Ayr. The Raiders showed a lot of fight while nearly coming back against Riverside. This is a really good 1-2 team that gets to 2-2 tonight.
Ryan’s Pick: Mount Ayr. I feel like this district will feature a lot of games that are low-scoring, defensive affairs, and this one should fit that mold. If the Raiders can get some of their athletes in space and loose, I think they squeak out a win here.
BCMoore Projection: Mount Ayr by 7.61.
Logan-Magnolia (2-1, 1-1) at Tri-Center (2-1, 1-0)
Logan-Magnolia is 15-6 in this series, which dates back to 1987 in the Iowa Scores Project. They didn’t play last year, but they did play every season between 2014 and 2019. The Panthers actually have lost the last two games against Tri-Center (in 2018 and 2019).
Trev’s Pick: Logan-Magnolia. Talk about contrasting styles. T-C is coming off a 56-point output and gets a physical battle with the Panthers. I think Lo-Ma's approach shortens the game and gets them the win.
Ryan’s Pick: Logan-Magnolia. Which Tri-Center team will show up in this game? The Trojans have shown they can win defensive games (14-0 over Treynor) and shootouts (56-30 over Missouri Valley). For me, this game boils down to consistency, which is exactly what you get from a Matt Straight-coached Lo-Ma squad.
Derek’s Pick: Logan-Magnolia. Understand that I have thought very highly of Logan-Magnolia all preseason and all season long. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is that I have really, really become quite bullish on Tri-Center. Who wouldn’t? They’ve been impressive. Still, I have to go with Lo-Ma. I think they’re one of the top teams in Class A.
BCMoore Projection: Logan-Magnolia by 7.32.
Harlan (3-0) at Glenwood (2-1)
In the Iowa Scores Project, Harlan holds the 48-3 advantage in this series. Glenwood’s wins: 1994, 2016 and 2019. There have been plenty of close games of late, too, that the Rams could have added to that win total. But…Harlan’s history is overwhelming. You know this.
Ryan’s Pick: Harlan. It's homecoming week in Glenwood and there's a lot of pageantry that comes with that. If the Rams want a win, they have to find a way to slow down the Cyclone offense. I think the Rams can hang around for a little bit, but in the end, Harlan just has too much firepower to pick against.
Derek’s Pick: Harlan. Glenwood is down their QB1, and that’s not a good thing when you’re going to have to likely put up a strong number of points. Harlan wakes up in the morning and gets 28 on the board. Tough matchup here. I don’t think it will be as high as that BCMoore projection, though.
Trev’s Pick: Abstain. It is HIGHLY ILLEGAL to make a prediction when you are broadcasting a game! HIGHLY ILLEGAL!
BCMoore Projection: Harlan by 41.51.
Lewis Central (2-1) at Indianola (3-0)
Oh, wow! This is something that crept up on me, and it’s an awesome, awesome game. This is BCMoore’s No. 1 (LC) against No. 2 (Indianola) in Class 4A. This is the third matchup between the two schools with Lewis Central winning in 2012 and Indianola taking it in 2013.
Derek’s Pick: Indianola. Not an easy thing to do here, picking against the local team when it’s likely that a large majority of the eyes on this thing are from the Lewis Central side. However, Indianola beat BCMoore’s 5A No. 1 Ankeny Centennial and beat them badly. They also have a dominant win over Glenwood and a victory at Pella. LC has been impressive, and if they win this I will be quite proud and happy for them.
Trev’s Pick: Lewis Central. Oooh this game should be a treat. Give me the KMAland team to get the job done.
Ryan’s Pick: Lewis Central. LC's brutal schedule continues this week with their second-straight top-five showdown. Indianola is loaded with talent up and down the roster and won an emotional roller coaster over Pella last week. If LC can control the line and make a few defensive stands, I think they can pull this one out.
BCMoore Projection: Lewis Central by 7.56.
Sioux City East (3-0) at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (2-1)
Sergeant Bluff-Luton has won all four of the matchups in the Iowa Scores Project. The Warriors won in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, and they won all of them by a lot of points.
Trev’s Pick: Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Don't put too much into SBL's 29-point loss to Harlan. They were in that game until late, and Harlan is really, really good. The Warriors regroup tonight.
Ryan’s Pick: Sioux City East. Things are looking great for the Raiders, who broke into the Class 5A state rankings this week. The computers are heavy favorites for SBL, but I'm just going with a hunch and saying SCE pulls one out on the road.
Derek’s Pick: Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Give me the Warriors in a bounce back week.
BCMoore Projection: Sergeant Bluff-Luton by 16.52.
St. Pius X (3-0, 1-0) at Maryville (1-2, 1-0)
The two have played every year since 2010 with two meetings each in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017, and the Spoofhounds owned the series up to last year. They had won 15 straight times and five times in the postseason before St. Pius X got them a year ago.
Ryan’s Pick: St. Pius X. It's been a tough start to the year for Maryville, thanks in part to their schedule. St. Pius hasn't really been tested this season and has a ton of talent. I'll take them to win a close one.
Derek’s Pick: St. Pius X. They have been really impressive in the early going this season. Maryville is going to find it, but I’ll take the Warriors to get a very, very, very rare win in the Hound Pound. I also have an inkling the others went against Pius, so I thought I would take the chance. (Note: I was wrong.)
Trev’s Pick: St. Pius X. I don't like doubting Matt Webb-coached teams, but I think the defending MEC champs are just a bit much for the Spoofhounds.
Nebraska City (3-0) at Platteview (2-1)
I’m only going back to last year for these Nebraska matchups, and Platteview won it in a 38-30 battle at Nebraska City.
Derek’s Pick: Platteview. I do think both of these teams are very strong, but I like how the Trojans played last week in their game with Auburn. If they can put all four quarters together like they did the first two last week, I think they can come out with a big home win.
Trev’s Pick: Nebraska City. The Kaleb Walker era couldn't have started much better for the Pioneers. Actually, yeah it could if they get to 4-0, which I think they do.
Ryan’s Pick: Platteview. Nebraska City is off to a fantastic start this year, but the competition level steps up a bit this week with Platteview. The Trojans are balanced on offense and Jared Kuhl is a true dual-threat QB. This one will be close.
Wayne (3-0) at Ashland-Greenwood (3-0)
There’s definitely some history between these two. Last year, Ashland-Greenwood nabbed a terrific 28-20 win on the road just one year after they lost to Wayne in the state playoffs. Another doozy here.
Trev’s Pick: Ashland-Greenwood. I went back and forth on this, but my tiebreaker is always to pick the KMAland team, which is A-G.
Ryan’s Pick: Ashland-Greenwood. For some reason, this matchup is always one of my favorites each year. It's mostly because both teams are good and they usually play classic, tight games. This one will be no different. The Bluejays have thrown the ball a little more this year, but they'll need their running game to get a win this week.
Derek’s Pick: Ashland-Greenwood. The Bluejays haven’t exactly been healthy this season, but they’re getting closer and closer. I’ll take them to nab one here.
Palmyra (3-0, 0-0) at Lourdes Central Catholic (3-0, 0-0)
Lourdes Central Catholic was a dominant 56-18 win over Palmyra last season to open district play.
Ryan’s Pick: Lourdes Central Catholic. It's been a special start to 2021 for the Knights. Blake Miller continues to do what good athletes do: impact games. LCC will need to lean on him again this week against a tough Panther squad. I'll take Lourdes in a shootout.
Derek’s Pick: Lourdes Central Catholic. It’s a cool story to see Palmyra at 3-0, but Lourdes is a really, really, really good team with three really, really, really good wins already on the season.
Trev’s Pick: Lourdes Central Catholic. This game might have a lot of points. Palmyra loves to throw the pigskin all over the yard, but I think Lourdes has the slight edge. There's something special brewing in Nebraska City.